Environmental production limit is expected to tighten steel prices again

September 23, rebar after last week after the strong rebound.Up to that day afternoon close, rebar main 2001 contract up 3.60% to 3510 yuan/ton.The main hot coil 2001 contract also rebounded, up 2.99% to 3509 yuan/ton.For the rise in the market, most market people have said that the main decline in steel inventory and environmental protection production restrictions constitute a strong support.

Over the weekend, it was reported that the relevant authorities in tangshan city have decided to continue to strengthen the air pollution prevention and control plan, according to a reporter from futures daily.Zhai hepan, director of black research at jianxin futures, said that from the perspective of steel enterprise management and control measures, the main reason is the increase in the proportion of sintering machine stopping production, which was adjusted from the previous 20-30% to “no less than 50% of sintering machine stopping production in other steel enterprises except tanggang north factory, tangyin iron and steel and tianzhu iron and steel keep one sintering machine production”.Steel mills in coastal areas did not implement the tighter controls;Independent rolling enterprises stop production.

In addition, on September 22 afternoon, tangshan related departments in accordance with ecological headquarters “guidance” in the whole process of iron and steel enterprise rating standards, combining the reality of tangshan, rating standard of class C iron and steel enterprises further refinement, to study and draft the “performance category C steel refining evaluation of enterprises”, the rating class C steel enterprise subdivided into C1, C2, C3, three categories, respectively, 9, 16, 5.Three types of enterprises in combination with the actual autumn and winter production limit period or in accordance with 20% to 55% of the proportion of differential production limit, analysts said, estimated impact is not less than last year.One day later, on the morning of September 23, the tangshan emergency office again required to report the measures of stopping and restricting production of tangshan iron and steel enterprises according to the four time periods of National Day and autumn and winter.

Zhai hepan said that since the end of September, tangshan area environmental protection production limit measures have been introduced and the intensity of the obvious upgrade, breaking the previous market for environmental protection production limit policy easing expectations.Despite the high steel supply, but the peak season to inventory stage, the downstream demand is summer gradually recovered, supply pressure gradually ease, superposition of key environmental protection areas distributed in the fall and winter will cause a downturn of the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to heat up, obviously the whole, before the mid to late October, steel spot price premium range narrowed at the same time, the steel futures after rapid callback is expected to be strong again.

According to jin rui futures institute director zhuo guiqiu introduced, tangshan, wuan iron and steel industry environmental protection production limits, tangshan port closure, road transport restrictions and other signs of tightening, control measures mainly concentrated in September 22 solstice during October 4.After communicating with tangshan steel plant, the steel plant said its production had been reduced, and the port of jingtang was closed at midnight on April 23.On the morning of 23, shandong region steel mills also began to stop production limit.Therefore, zhuo guiqiu believes that the short-term environmental protection production limit is strengthened, the supply of finished wood chain large probability of decline, on the thread, hot coil form a certain positive.